The Andromeda Galaxy is approaching the Milky Way at about 110 kilometres per second (68 mi/s) as indicated by blueshift. However, the lateral velocity is very difficult to measure with a precision to draw reasonable conclusions: a lateral speed of only 7.7 km/s would mean that the Andromeda Galaxy is moving toward a point 177,800 light-years to the side of the Milky Way ((7.7 km/s) / (110 km/s) × (2 540 000 ly)), and such a speed over an eight-year time frame amounts to only 1/3000 of a Hubble Space Telescope pixel (Hubble's resolution≈0.05 arcsec: (7.7 km/s)/(300 000 km/s)×(8 y)/(2 540 000 ly)×180°/π×3600 = 0.000 017 arcsec). Until 2012, it was not known whether the possible collision was definitely going to happen or not. In 2012, researchers concluded that the collision is sure using Hubble to track the motion of stars in Andromeda between 2002 and 2010 with sub-pixel accuracy. Andromeda's tangential or sideways velocity with respect to the Milky Way was found to be much smaller than the speed of approach and therefore it is expected that it will directly collide with the Milky Way in around four billion years.
Such collisions are relatively common, considering galaxies' long lifespans. Andromeda, for example, is believed to have collided with at least one other galaxy in the past, and several dwarf galaxies such as Sgr dSph are currently colliding with the Milky Way and being merged into it.
The studies also suggest that M33, the Triangulum Galaxy—the third-largest and third-brightest galaxy of the Local Group—will participate in the collision event too. Its most likely fate is to end up orbiting the merger remnant of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies and finally to merge with it in an even more distant future. However, a collision with the Milky Way, before it collides with the Andromeda Galaxy, or an ejection from the Local Group cannot be ruled out.
While the Andromeda Galaxy contains about 1 trillion (1012) stars and the Milky Way contains about 300 billion (3×1011), the chance of even two stars colliding is negligible because of the huge distances between the stars. For example, the nearest star to the Sun is Proxima Centauri, about 4.2 light-years (4.0×1013 km; 2.5×1013 mi) or 30 million (3×107) solar diameters away. If the Sun were a ping-pong ball, Proxima Centauri would be a pea about 1,100 km (680 mi) away, and the Milky Way would be about 30 million km (19 million mi) wide. Although stars are more common near the centres of each galaxy, the average distance between stars is still 160 billion (1.6×1011) km (100 billion mi). That is analogous to one ping-pong ball every 3.2 km (2.0 mi). Thus, it is extremely unlikely that any two stars from the merging galaxies would collide.
The Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies each contain a central supermassive black hole (SMBH), these being Sagittarius A* (ca. ×106 M☉) and an object within the 3.6P2 concentration of Andromeda's nucleus (×108 M☉). These black holes will converge near the center of the newly formed galaxy over a period that may take millions of years, due to a process known as 1–2dynamical friction: As the SMBHs move relative to the surrounding cloud of much less massive stars, gravitational interactions lead to a net transfer of orbital energy from the SMBHs to the stars, causing the stars to be "slingshotted" into higher-radius orbits, and the SMBHs to "sink toward the galactic core." When the SMBHs come within one light-year of one another, they will begin to strongly emit gravitational waves that will radiate further orbital energy until they merge completely. Gas taken up by the combined black hole could create a luminous quasar or an active galactic nucleus, releasing as much energy as 100 million supernova explosions. As of 2006, simulations indicated that the Sun might be brought near the center of the combined galaxy, potentially coming near one of the black holes before being ejected entirely out of the galaxy. Alternatively, the Sun might approach one of the black holes a bit closer and be torn apart by its gravity. Parts of the former Sun would be pulled into the black hole.